According to The Kobeissi Letter, oil markets have started pricing in risk as shipments through the Hormuz Strait have steadily declined since June 13th. While this does not signal a complete shutdown, which would be a worst-case scenario, the ongoing reduction could pressure global energy prices and potentially prompt central banks to consider rate hikes if disruptions worsen (source: The Kobeissi Letter, June 22, 2025). For cryptocurrency traders, a rise in oil prices and potential rate hikes could increase market volatility for assets like BTC and ETH, as risk sentiment may shift rapidly in response to global macroeconomic developments.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, current market conditions do not indicate a significant risk of World War 3, as the S&P 500 index is trading just 2% below its all-time high. The Kobeissi Letter notes that, historically, major geopolitical risks would result in a 30% market drop, gold prices above $5,000 per ounce, and oil surging past $100 per barrel. This stable environment suggests sustained investor confidence and minimal flight to safe-haven assets, providing traders with clear signals to focus on equity and crypto market momentum rather than hedging for extreme geopolitical events (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, June 16, 2025).